Mean Green

In this document I would like to outline some of the deficiencies in the use of ETHANOL as a proposed

“alternative” carbon-free, low-gas emission fuel.

Let’s start by taking a look at where ethanol comes from, how it is produced, and why it is being touted as an energy efficient environmentally friendly biofuel.

Ethanol can be produced as a petrochemical via the hydration of ethylene, and biologically, by fermenting sugars with yeast. In this paper we will leave aside the ethanol produced petrochemically and digest some facts relating to the field crops required to produce ethanol.

In the U.S.A ethanol as a fuel is derived mainly from maize (corn). According to the “Renewable Fuel Association, in October ’07, there were 131 grain ethanol bio-refineries in the U.S.A. with a further 72 refineries under construction. So lets ask how much maize will these refineries consume just to produce a biofuel?. Well America alone produces 270 million metric tons annually which is almost half the worlds harvest.

It has been calculated that 500lbs of maize is required to provide one full tank for the average american car; simple arithmetic will show that equates to approximately 12 tons of maize for 1 car for 1 year. If America is producing 270 million tons p.a., which is the approximate amount required to keep 20 million cars on the U.S roads for one year then ALL of America’s maize production is used on the production of fuel and there is none left to use as FOOD.

Brazil now has a policy of supporting ethanol as a car fuel which is provided from domestically grown sugar cane, which not only has a greater concentration of sucrose than corn (approx. 30% better) but is also much easier to extract.

The policies of both the Brazilian and the U.S.A. governments who supply 69% of the worlds ethanol- regarding the production of ethanol biofuels is directly at the expense of the food supply chain. Both sugar products and corn have soared up in price as a direct result of these policies and the huge subsidies paid to farmers and industrial conglomerates. In fact the Asian Development Bank stated on Monday the 21st April this year “that developed nations should stop paying agricultural subsidies to encourage biofuel production because those payments are making staple foods more expensive.”

Sweden does not help this situation either as its said that 13% of new cars sold there now run on biofuel and practically every other car maker in the world is trying to make their own version of a biofuel car.

In following their policy to produce ethanol biofuel systems they have turned their backs to the fact that this policy has a negative effect on the environment by removing crops (food) from the food chain and where it is the case (Brazil,S America) where tropical forests are being demolished to plant biofuel producing crops, they are removing those vital trees from from the land which themselves can literally absorb a ton of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in their lifetime.

Finally, a recent article in Science magazine states: “the use of US croplands for biofuels causes increased greenhouse gas emissions through emissions from land use change”.

Having read the above it is incredible how anyone could perceive ethanol to be an ethical alternative fuel.

There is an ethical, environmentally friendly system available NOW, but nobody in government nor anyone in the oil industry supports it. WHY, – simply because they have a vested interest in the status quo.The big conglomerates with government officials aiding them have invested BILLIONS in the aforementioned so called alternative fuels and they have made huge mistakes, but their shortsightedness in trying to protect their bad investments at all costs, is at a cost to the world’s precious delicate environment.

As mentioned we do have an alternative system that is eco-friendly and it is available NOW; it is the water to fuel conversion system which for a very small fee is yours to benefit from immediately.

What are the immediate benefits of installing a water to fuel conversion system?

a)..Your vehicle will dramatically produce significantly cleaner gas emissions thus reducing the amount of carbon dioxide discharged into the air.

b)..You will reduce the amount of land required for crops to convert to biofuel which can then be re-utilized for growing vital food crops.

c)..Reduced petrol/diesel consumption via improved m.p.g.

d)..Both a & b help to provide a better, healthier environment, and incidentally and very happily with c) you will find you have more cash left in your pocket.

We are not talking about gasoline, diesel fuel, or kerosene right now. An alternative fuel is defined as the choice of any fuel other than the traditional selections; gasoline and diesel.

What are the choices?

1.    Ethanol. Ethanol is a high-octane, low-emission fuel that has been used in racing for a long time. It is now made from renewable plant materials and can be used in normal vehicles. The bad thing about Ethanol is that it gets lower fuel economy ratings as opposed to gasoline.

2.    Methanol. Methanol has a high octane rating and a low emission of pollutants. These characteristics make it a great fuel to use in engines in cars. Since the 1960s, the cars in the Indianapolis 500, which is a big race that is held annually, were powered with methanol.

3.    Natural gas. Natural gas is a by-product of oil drilling and also coal mining. You can also harvest natural gas from natural gas fields.

4.    Propane is another type of alternative fuel. Another name for this kind of gas is liquefied petroleum gas. Propane is the gas that is made when natural gas and crude oil is refined.

5.    There are also blends of fuels. This is how we get fuels known as E-85 where it is a mix of 85% Ethanol and 15% gasoline. These are defined as mixtures between traditional and alternative fuels. Another blend is B20.

6.    Hydrogen is one of the more popular alternative fuels. Hydrogen is made commercially by refining it from petroleum. You can also make hydrogen by passing electricity through water. This process is known as electrolysis.

7.    Electricity is another alternative fuel. We consider electricity as an alternative fuel choice because it has been used to power the motors in electric vehicles. Electric vehicles are becoming more and more popular nowadays and they will be mass-produced in late 2009. Most people think this is the answer to our economy problem but what most people don’t realize is how expensive these electric vehicles are.

8.    Biodiesel is another popular alternative fuel source. This is an additive or even a replacement for diesel fuel. biodiesel is made from animal fat and sometimes vegetable oil.

9.    Biomass. Biomass is derived from materials that are biological, predominantly vegetation, these include biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel.

10.P-series. This is a colorless, clear liquid fuel which have between a 89 and 93 octane rating. P-series fuels are designed to be used in flex-fuel vehicles. This will become more and more popular as we see more flex-fuel vehicles.

This is just one list of the alternative fuels. There are many more out there we just need to discover them. Once a good alternative fuel is discovered that we can mass-produce very cheap which gets better gas mileage than our traditional fuel, the economy should start booming again.

Global Biofuel Market Analysis

Biofuels market has been witnessing a continuous growth and developments across the world over the past few years. Governments across the world are injecting huge amount of money and resources into the development of this sector in an attempt to reduce their dependency on oil. The volatile oil prices and production levels have further enlightened the need for continuous developments into this sector. ( http://www.bharatbook.com/Market-Research-Reports/Global-Biofuel-Market-Analysis.html )

According to our research report “Global Biofuel Market Analysis”, the global ethanol production is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of around 6% during 2009-2018. Also, global biodiesel production is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of over 5% during the same period. Various growth factors for different market segments have been thoroughly discussed in the report.

On the regional front, we found that the American region, mainly the U.S. and Brazil, has been driving the global biofuel industry. The two aforementioned nations accounted for around 79% of the total world ethanol production in 2008. The immense support from the regional government has particularly been driving the growth of the biofuel industry. The region is also investing huge sums in the development of new technologies and methods for biofuel production.

Our research also foresees significant growth potential of biofuel industry in developing countries, such as India and China. The Southeast Asian region has an enormous potential in the field of biofuel production as a result of upcoming biofuels plants in the region. With increasing demand for biofuel, the region can become net exporter of biofuel to the developed world. In this regard, the report provides detailed analysis of the key trends and development of biofuel industry in the Southeast Asian region.

“Global Biofuel Market Analysis” provides extensive information and rational analysis on the world’s biofuel markets and emerging trends in the industry. It gives a deep insight of the regional trends prevailing in the biofuel market across the globe. Analysis and statistics regarding market size, growth, regional segmentation, and trends in technology developments have been thoroughly analyzed in the report to provide clients a comprehensive overview of the concerned market.

 

Contact us at :

 

Bharat Book Bureau

Tel: +91 22 27578668

Fax: +91 22 27579131

Email: info@bharatbook.com

Website: www.bharatbook.com

In The Ordeal of Change, Eric Hoffer, American philosopher and recipient of the Presidential Medal of Freedom (1983) said “In times of change, learners inherit the Earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists.” Timeless words for rapidly changing times. 

Let’s Face It, We’re Addicted to Oil 

America, let’s face it, we’re so addicted to oil, not only do we divert hundreds of billions of dollars a year from our own communities to obtain it abroad, we devote vast military and political resources to court hostile anti-American regimes, corruption, and instability in countries like Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Bottom line: We must simultaneously diversify sources of oil supplies, dramatically slash oil consumption, and increase production of alternative-energy sources to clean up the environment, increase our energy efficiency, protect national security interests, reduce the military and political leverage of OPEC oil, revitalize the U.S. economy, and shrink trade deficits. 

It is of vital military and political importance we end our uneasy alliance with the House of Saud and our footprint in the unstable Persian Gulf region. We should start by forming an oil consortium with other non-OPEC nations, including Brazil, Canada, Mexico, Norway, and the United Kingdom to compete directly with OPEC for world oil revenues. We should follow this up by seizing the assets of Petróleos de Venezuela in the United States as compensation for President Hugo Chávez’s seizure of assets of American oil companies operating in his “Bolivarian Republic.” This seizure should include the assets of the CITGO Petroleum Corporation.

Role of Domestic Production and Refining Capacity

We also need to ramp up the domestic production and refining capacity of oil. World energy consumption has surged due to the rapid growth of economies in countries like China and India. It also has surged due to the growing energy needs of non-producing countries like Germany and Japan. This wouldn’t matter one iota if supplies were keeping pace with the growth in demand. Global exploration and development as a percentage of oil-related revenues has fallen well below long-term averages since the early 1990’s. With at least 100 billion barrels of untapped oil reserves in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge of Alaska, the lower 48 states, and off U.S. shores, we are shooting ourselves in the foot by not developing the domestic sources at our disposal. We should start by uncapping the numerous closed oil fields in America’s heartland, creating jobs for Americans and revenues for America. We also need to construct new refineries on closed military bases, on tribal reservations, and on land in defunct communities like Cheshire, OH. In addition to exploiting our untapped oil reserves, we also must exploit our untapped natural gas supplies, whether they’re located on or off shore.

Role of Automotive Technologies and Alternative Fuels

As nearly half our domestic and imported oil is consumed primarily in the form of gasoline to fuel personal vehicles, this is where we need to focus a great deal of our attention and investment dollars. We need to nurture breakthrough automotive technologies and investment in commercially-viable alternative-fuel sources (i.e., ammonia, bio-diesel/bio-fuels, compressed natural gas, gas/electric hybrids, plug-in electrics, etc.) through targeted financial and tax incentives. Credit trading mechanisms that currently enable automakers to “borrow” or “swap” fuel efficiency should be suspended entirely. Instead, we need to put mechanisms in place that reward automakers for producing (and consumers for buying) vehicles that perform better than Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. Whatever mechanisms we put in place should require market-driven increases in the CAFE threshold on an annual basis. We also do not necessarily need to end federal subsidies for “Big Oil,” rather we need to force Big Oil to reinvest these subsidies in retrofitting retail gas station pumps to handle multiple alternative fuels. One thing is certain, OPEC nations, including state-owned sovereign wealth funds, should be prohibited from investing in or controlling our alternative-fuel resources, as it would make no sense for us to allow OPEC to maintain its death grip on our economy as we shift from oil.

Automakers can drive up CAFE thresholds in a couple of ways. One is by substituting the same lighter-weight carbon-fiber composite body panels used by our military for steel. Another is by harnessing kinetic energy from the natural motion, rotation, and vibration of the vehicle and its parts as a supplemental power source.

We also must replace current “flex-fuel” (a.k.a. E85) vehicles with “multi flex-fuel” vehicles capable of using any pure or blended fuel source. This should include bio-diesel/bio-fuels, and not the kind made from valuable food crops, such as corn. Switchgrass or some other source of so-called “cellulosic ethanol” might be a better fit, but we must learn to produce it in a way that doesn’t increase air pollution, global warming, soil erosion, or water pollution, or harm environmentally-sensitive habitats. In addition to excluding valuable food crops, we also must exclude bio-fuels produced on cleared old-growth forest or tropical rainforest lands. To fully move the U.S. away from oil, we must use bio-fuels as an alternative to gasoline rather than as an additive; we also must phase out petro-diesel in favor of bio-diesel. Additionally, we must create a viable national high-speed passenger and freight rail network to ease traffic congestion and improve logistics. Imagine “land ferries” that transport people and their vehicles from point A to point B.

While hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, most of it remains locked up in more complex compounds such as ammonia, methane (natural gas or propane), or water. Not only does it require tremendous amounts of energy to separate the hydrogen from its natural compounds, it requires tremendous amounts of energy to liquefy and condense hydrogen; however, scientists are experimenting with electrolyzers, genetically-engineered bacteria, and various reactive metals that might one day lead to an abundant alternative-fuel source. According to Kevin Mayhood in a June 30, 2008 article in The Columbus Dispatch, Gerardine Botte, director of Ohio University’s Electrochemical Engineering Research Laboratory, is working on a method to pull hydrogen from the ammonia in animal and human urine. This is important for several reasons. First, we already have the infrastructure in place to distribute ammonia to retail gas station pumps, as it’s been used to make fertilizer for decades. Second, separating hydrogen from ammonia does not produce “greenhouse gases” as long as the required electricity comes from a source which produces no greenhouse gases. (The same can be said for gas/electric hybrids and plug-in electrics.) Third, ammonia is more easily liquefied and condensed than hydrogen.

Role of Power Production for Businesses and Homes

In addition to transforming our automotive fleet and fuel-distribution infrastructure, we need to transform power production for our businesses and homes. This can be accomplished through farm-waste power generation, geothermal heating systems, landfill-gas power generation, solar panels, and wind turbines. We’ve already noted that nearly half our domestic and imported oil is consumed primarily in the form of gasoline to fuel personal vehicles. Likewise, nearly one quarter of all electricity we produce is used to light our businesses and homes. We need to scrap incandescent lights in favor of more-efficient compact fluorescent lights and light-emitting diodes, not in phases, but immediately. We also need to invest in dual-fuel furnaces and water heaters, providing the end-user with the power to automatically switch between electricity and natural gas, depending on real-time energy costs. Buildings and homes must be retrofitted to make better use of daylight and heat gain/loss. Imagine advanced roofing materials that are white (to reflect heat) in the Summer to reduce cooling load and black (to absorb heat) in the Winter to reduce heating load. Additionally, new appliances and electronic devices must be developed that do not require “stand-by” power. Finally, we need to deploy wind turbines across The Great Plains from North Dakota to Texas, harnessing the power of an emissions-free, inexhaustible energy source that does not require oil or other fossil fuels, radioactive materials, or water.

Role of U.S. Dollar and Speculation

A large chunk of the price of every barrel of oil can be tied to the strength of the U.S. Dollar and speculation. Government policies should focus on strengthening the U.S. Dollar and reining in rogue speculators with federal oversight. We’ve provided ample opportunity for energy traders to responsibly exercise the rights of a free market, and they’ve squeezed every drop out of our wallets. Remember Enron?

Role of the Environment and Other Issues

Our thirst for oil and other fossil fuels spews enormous quantities of greenhouse gases and toxic pollutants into the atmosphere each year. Every effort we make now to diversify sources of oil supplies, dramatically slash oil consumption, and increase production of alternative-energy sources will enable us to clean up our act and reduce our “carbon footprint.” In addition to the measures mentioned above, we need to develop chemicals, lubricants, plastics, and road pavements that do not require oil as a feedstock. Not only will this dramatically slash oil consumption, it will enable the heat content traditionally locked up in these products to be used elsewhere. For existing oil-based products, we must implement mandatory recycling or reuse programs. It’s senseless for oil to end up in our landfills or to be poured out on our highways. Additionally, we should explore using “energy labels” on foods and other products detailing the amount of energy required (and the CO2 emissions generated) to produce and transport it, with particular emphasis on the amount of oil and its source. Back to wind turbines: it’s hypocritical for environmental “advocates” to vehemently oppose an emissions-free, inexhaustible energy source that does not require oil or other fossil fuels, radioactive materials, or water. 

www.christophermengland.com

 

There are a lot of things to distract the investor in today’s climate of news driven swings on the stock market. Clearly progress on a rescue package for the country’s financial services sector is dominating proceedings at the moment. Supply of capital and credit are of major concern. However, supply destruction as well as the insatiable and refined appetite of the developing world are at the root of a crisis of a different kind.

In this case, we are referring to agriculture. Feeding an ever larger and more affluent world population is putting a strain on supply which in turn is driving up prices. In addition, the rise of the biofuel industry is adding to the robust demand side story. Yet weather, access to fresh water and diminishing areas of arable land are among the factors hampering the supply response. Add to this our bearish view of the US dollar and an anticipated shift in government spending priority and the outlook for higher food prices is compelling in our opinion.

The US is the world’s biggest producer of two of the world’s staple commodities. In the case of corn, the country accounts for approximately 70 percent of global exports and approximately 40 percent for soybeans. In our view, as we will see below, both commodities are set for an increase in price.

This month, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) warned of a lower than previously expected corn harvest courtesy of an arid August. In addition, the USDA commented that harvests for corn will produce 1.8 percent less corn than forecast last month, while the soybean harvest will drop 1.3 percent.

While US harvests yield less and less, the US dollar is set to purchase less and less.

Despite the recent bout of dollar strength, the bailouts of Fannie and Freddie followed by AIG and now a massive $700 billion rescue package present a more accurate harbinger of things to come. The Fed may have resisted a rate cut this month in a bid to control inflation, but the potential inflationary impacts of recent bailouts should not be underestimated. And the resulting weaker dollar will in our opinion only serve as rocket fuel for commodities prices.

The flood of US dollars circulating around the world economy is only matched by floods of a literal kind which seem to batter the US on a regular basis. If it is not Gustav, it is Ike.

Whether or not global warming is to blame the fact is that the planet’s climate is becoming increasingly volatile and acute. Droughts, severe winds and floods are hitting the headlines on a more frequent basis. These events, more so than for other goods and services, can have a significant influence on agricultural supply.

Indeed, the supply crippling hurricanes which are erasing the Midwest grain crops are precisely the kind of natural disaster that, under many climate forecasts, will become routine a few decades from now.

Hurricane Ike for example made its effects felt far beyond the Gulf States. It dragged its winds and rains up the Mississippi River Valley and across the eastern ‘Corn Belt’, flooding or flattening crops.

Supply is struggling, but that is just one side of the equation.

Arguably the main force behind the soft commodities juggernaut is the growth of the world population. It is anticipated there will be 9 billion mouths to feed on the globe by 2050. And no matter the economic climate, the population has to eat.

Not only is population soaring, but many of the newcomers are wealthy enough to eat meat. Given that it takes an average of eight pounds of grain to make a pound of meat, the dietary requirements of the world’s burgeoning middle class is resource intensive.

While an economic malaise presides over the western world, over in the East it is business as usual. The Chinese and India freight trains continue to race ahead as economic growth is supported by both global AND domestic demand.

In China, (where annual GDP growth could fall as ‘low’ as 9 percent) is it estimated that 500 to 600 million people are set to relocate into cities over the next 10 years. China’s urbanisation represents the single biggest mass migration ever and is a sign of the burgeoning prosperity within the country.

As a result, current levels of demand for refined food are soaring while production levels are struggling to keep up.

Adding further fuel to the fire, the US has a desire to reduce its dependence on oil whilst stepping up the use of biofuels. So as the need to feed the burgeoning human population puts strain on supply, the search for alternative energy is exacerbating the situation.

We are far from convinced that ethanol is the answer to soaring energy costs but as the price of oil remains high, the pursuit alternative sources of energy continues at pace. Doubts have arisen about ethanol’s ability to lower net CO2 emissions (processing is energy intensive), and the diversion of crops to biofuels has contributed significantly to higher food prices.

The question of whether biofuels can be produced in a manner that does not send food prices shooting up, and brings an environmental benefit, is crucial to the future of the entire nascent biofuels industry.

For the time being, the alternative energy industry is playing its part. But there are additional factors.

Global water shortages are adding to the problem. Food production is highly water intensive. And according to the UN, agriculture is the number one consumer of freshwater. And looking ahead as the price of water is propelled skyward, we believe food prices will inevitably surge forward.

Scarcity is also a major issue for farmland. The majority of arable land is already under cultivation and with more and more land being used to produce corn for fuel less space is available for food production. And as the level of housing and business development increase, it is farmlands that are making way.

Furthermore, subsidies in countries where production is uneconomic will eventually and reluctantly fall as government spending is diverted away from agriculture. Indeed, right now in America it is not difficult to see that the government has other serious cash calls on its resources.

All factors considered high food prices are set to get even higher. Indeed, the refined appetite emanating from the East ensures that the effects of lagging global supply are set to have an alarming effect on food prices over the long term.

As such, we believe exposure to soft commodities can form an important part of a well diversified portfolio. A relatively ease way to accomplish this is through the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (AMEX, DBA), which we have recommended to our own clients in the past.

IMPORTANT: This message, together with the Fat Prophets website and all its contents have been prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore talk with their financial planner or advisor before acting on any information present on this message or the Fat Prophets website. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance, and investors should be aware that returns can be negative. For a full explanation of the performance calculation methodology, please visit the Fat Prophets website.               

1.0 Introduction

This 21st century has become an age of recycling where a lots of emphasize is placed on reuse of material to curb current environmental problems and maximize use of depleting natural resources and energy conservation. Modern day sustainable use and management of resource recommend need to incorporate recycling culture in our ways of life including technological process. Biomass is not left behind in this; the use of biomass energy resource derived from the carbonaceous waste of various natural and human activities to produce electricity is becoming popular. Biomass is considered as one of the clean, more- efficient and more-stable means of power generation. And it has become imperative for marine industry to tap this new evolving power generation mode especially the use of micro generation approach considering the mobile nature of ships.

 

Biofuels exist in solid, liquid or gas form thereby potentially affecting three of our core markets. Solid biofuels or biomass tend to be used in external combustion, however its use in the shipping industry has been limited to liquid biofuel due to lack of appropriate information economics forecasts, Sources of biomass include by-products from the timber industry, agricultural crops, raw material from the forest, major parts of household waste, and demolition wood, all things being equal using pure biomass that do not affect human and ecological chain make it suitable energy source. Biomass has low sulfur content means biomass combustion therefore considered much less acidifying than with coal, for example. Also, the ashes from biomass consumption, which are very low in heavy metals, can be recycled.

One advantage of biomass compared to other renewable-based systems that require costly advanced technology (such as solar photovoltaics) is that biomass can generate electricity with the same type of equipment and power plants that now burn fossil fuels. Many innovations in power generation with other fossil fuels may also be adaptable to the use of biomass fuels. Various factors have hindered the growth of the renewable energy resource, however. Most biomass power plants operating today are characterized by low boiler and thermal-plant efficiencies; both the fuel’s characteristics and the small size of most facilities contribute to these efficiencies. In addition, such plants are costly to build.

Biomass remains potential renewable energy contributor to net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by offsetting CO2 from fossil generation. The current method generating biomass power is biomass fired boilers and Rankine steam turbines. Recent research work in developing sustainable, and economic biomass focus on high-pressure supercritical steam cycles , use of feedstock supply system, and conversion of biomass to a low or medium gas that can be fired in combustion turbine cycles, resulting in efficiencies one-and-a-half times that of a simple steam turbine. biofuels has potential to influence marine industry, and it as become importance for designers and ship owners to accept their influence on the world fleet of the future especially the micro generation concept with co generation for cargo and fuel for  ships.

 

The paper discuss conceptual work, trend , sociopolitical driver, economic, development, and future of biomass with hope to bring awareness to local, national and multinational bodies making biofuels policies as well as maritime multidisciplinary expertise in regulation, economics, engineering, and vessel design and operation. The paper also discusses how the shipping industry can take advantage of growing tide to tap benefit promised by waste use power generation system.

 

 

2.0 Biomass developmental trend

 

The concept of use of Biofuels for energy generation has has been existing concept, and in the face of challenges posed by environmental need, its growth is likely to dominate renewable energy market. Following the advent of peanut oil diesel engines developed by Rudolf Diesel in 1911 the production and use of biofuels worldwide has grown significantly in recent years. The current world biofuels market is focused on: Bioethanol blended into fossil motor gasoline (petrol) or used directly and biodiesel or Fatty Acid Methyl Ester diesel blended into fossil diesel. However the use of The Fischer-Tropsch model that involve catalyzed chemical reaction to produce a synthetic petroleum substitute, typically from coal, natural gas or biomass, for use as synthetic lubrication oil or as a synthetic fuel seem promising and negate risk posed by food based biomass. This synthetic fuel runs only in diesel engines and some aircraft engines. Oil, product and chemical tankers being constructed now are likely to benefit much more from use of biomas. However use on gasoline engines ignites the vapors at much higher temperatures, which pose limitation to inland water craft.

 

Biomass generation and growing trend can be classified into 3 generation types:

first generation’ biofuels relate to biofuels made from sugar or starch, producing bioethanol, and vegetable oil or animal fats producing biodiesel. First generation biofuels provoke increasing criticism through their dependence on food crops and issues over biodiversity, land use and human rights. Hybrid technology for percentage blending is being employed to mitigate food production impact. Second generation biofuels mitigate problem posed by the first generation biofuels. They do not affect food crops because they are made from waste biomass from agricultural and forestry, fast-growing grasses and trees specially grown as so-called “energy crops”. With technology, sustainability and cost issues to overcome, second-generation biofuels are still several years away from commercial viability and many second generation mass produced biofuels are still under development including the biomass to liquid. Fischer-Tropsch production technique. third generation biofuels are green fuels like algae biofuel made from energy and biomass crops that have been designed in such a way that their structure or properties conform to the requirements of a particular bioconversion process. They are made from such as sewage, and grown on ponds.

 

Just like tanker revolution influence on ship type, demand for biomass will bring, will bring capacity, bio -material or completed product from source to production area and then to the point of use, will bring technological, environmental change will require ships of different configuration, size and tank coating type. As well as impact on the tonne mile demand will change accordingly.

 

Effect on shipping is likely to follow shipping large scale growth on exports and seaborne trade from key exporting regions, particularly South America. Brazil has a key role. Brazil has already been branded to be producing en-mass ethanol from sugar cane since the 1970s with a cost per unit reportedly the lowest in the world. And it is currently exploring ethanol

 

Table 1 – World ethanol consumption 2007

Consumption

 

World ethanol consumption -

51 million tones, 2007

Us and brazil

68%

EU and China –

17% – surplus of 0.1 million tones

US deficit –

1.7mt

EU deficit -

1.3 mt

World – deficit

1mt

 

Recent year is also witnessing  emerging trade on biofuel product between the US, EU, and Asia and whilst Brazil exports the most ethanol globally at about 2.9 million tonnes per year, the top importers of the US, EU,Japan and Korea have increasing demand that will have to be satisfied by increased shipping capacity. Seaborne vegetable oil supply is increasingly growing

 

 

Table 2 – Biofuel growth

 

 

 

Vegetable oil

33 mt in 2000 to 59 mt in 2008

 

Palm oil

13 mt in 2000 to 32 mt forecast in 2008.

 

a 7.5% p.a growth rate

Soya bean

7 mt to some 11.5 mt in 2008,

 

EU

imports – 5.7 mt in 2001 to an expected 10.3 mt for 2008

8.9%.

 

3.1 mt in 2001 to 5.2 mt forecast for 2008

39%

 

Production capacity- 1.9 mt in 2002 to 11 mt in 2007, with 2007.

 

50% of total capacity.

 

 

Recently biofuel is driving a new technology, Worldwide; the use of biofuels for cars and public vehicles has grown significantly. With excess capacity waiting for source material it seems inevitable that shipping demand will increase.

 

3.0 Inter industry Best Practice

 

3.1 Land based use - 

 

UK pumps mandate at least 2.5% biofuels. This target will rise to 5% by 2010. Also in the UK, the first train to run on biodiesel went into service in June 2007 for a six month trial period. The train uses a blended fuel, which is 20% biodiesel and the operator, Virgin Trains, is confident the mix can be increased to at least a 50% mix with the further possibility to run trains on fuels entirely from non-carbon sources. On January 15, 2006- Central Ohio Transit Authority (COTA lunch a program to test a 20% blend of biodiesel (B20) in its buses. In two months they used approximately 45,000 gallons of B20. As a result of the test, in April 2006 they began using biodiesel fleet-wide. In addition to using B20 in the winter months, COTA has committed to using 50-90% biodiesel blends (B50 – B90) during the summer months. This is projected to decrease regular diesel fuel consumption by over one million gallons per year. 26th of October 2007. buses in the UK running on B100 was launched on  In a pilot project. Argent Energy (UK) Limited is working together with Stagecoach to supply biodiesel made by recycling and processing animal fat and used cooking oil. For power stations, B&W have orders in the EU for 45 MW of two-stroke biofuel engines with a thermal efficiency of 51-52%. Specifically, these operate on palm oil of varying quality, and in the future, it is expected that more engines, whether stationary or marine, will be developed to run on biofuels.

·         US DOE has funded five new advanced biomass gasification research and development projects beginning in 2001(Vermont project)

·         2008 – Ford announced a £1 billion research project to convert more of its vehicles to new biofuel sources. The first trial oft, Last year. BP Australia has now sold over 100 million liters of 10% ethanol content fuel to Australian motorists, and Brazil sells both 22% ethanol petrol nationwide and 100% ethanol to over 4 million cars, It is a trend that is gathering momentum.

In a program initiated by the Swedish National Board for Industrial and Technical Development in Stockholm, several Swedish universities, companies, and utilities are collaborating to accelerate the demonstration of the advanced EVGT for natural-gas firing, especially in small-scale units. A natural-gas-fired EVGT pilot plant (0.6 megawatts of power output for a simple gas-turbine cycle) should start operation in Lund, Sweden, in 1998.

·         AES Corporation is a leading company in biomass conversion internationally. At AES Kilroot in Northern Ireland, the team recently completed a successful trial to convert the plant to burn a mixture of coal and biomass. With further investment in the technology, nearly half of Northern Ireland’s 2012 renewable target could be met from AES Kilroot alone.

3.2 Aero industry–

 

Virgin Atlantic – Air transport is receiving increasing attention because of environmental concerns linked to CO2 emissions, air quality and noise. Virgin Atlantic in collaboration with Boeing and General Electric aircraft alternative fuels project for aircraft. A successful test flight from London to Amsterdam flight took place on 24th February of this year, running one of the four jumbo jet engines on a mixture of 20% coconut oil and babassu nut oil, with 80% conventional jet fuel. This fuel was specifically chosen due to its performance at low operating temperatures. The test was successful, with no noticeable difference in performance. Except that; imitation that biofuel mix used was in no way sustainable in the quantities required by the demands of the aviation industry. In a way to mitigate this Virgin is looking to us use of Algae based fuels as it is predicted that they may be suitable for use at low temperature.

 

3.3  Maritime industry 

 

The use of land based transportation, is growing, however the use for sea based transportation need to be explored. Biofuels  for ship will be advantageous. In recent UK pilot project where Buses are run on B100 Argent Energy (UK) Limited is working together with Stagecoach to supply biodiesel made by recycling and processing animal fat and used cooking oil. Marine engines with their inherent lower speed and more tolerant to burning alternative fuels than smaller, higher speed engines tolerance will allow them to run on lower grade and cheaper biofuels. Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines (RCCL) unveiled a palm oil-based biodiesel since 2005.Optimistic outcome of the trial made RCCL confident enough to sign a contract in August 2007 for delivery of a minimum 15 million gallons and for the four years after, a minimum of 18 millions gallons of biodiesel for its cruise ships fleet. The contract marked the single largest long-term biodiesel sales contract in the United States. In early 2007, United States Coast Guard indicated that their fleet will augment increase use of biofuels by 15% over the next four years. In the marine industry, beside energy substitute advantage, biolubricants and biodegradable oil  are particularly advantageous from an environmental and pollution perspective. Bio lubrication also offer higher viscosity, flash point and better technical properties such as increased sealing and lower machine operating temperature advantageous use in ship operation.

 

Time has gone when maritime industry could afford nitty gritty in adopting technology, other industry are already on a fast track preparing themselves technically for evitable changes driven by environmental problem, Global energy demands and political debate add further pressures to find alternative energy especially bio energy  because of hybridization of old and new system advantage it offer. The implication is that shipping could be caught ill prepared for any rapid change in demand or supply of biofuel. Thus this technology is in the early stages of development but the shipping industry need top be prepared for the impacts of its breakthrough because Shipping will eventually required be at the centre of this supply and demand logistics chain again. Table 3 shows the projection for the main present players.

 

Table3  – projection

 

Region

Growth (1990-1994)

Projection (2020)

United states

7%

15%

Europe

2%

15%

 

4.0 Sources of biomass

North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) region. Supply has classified biofuel into the following four type’s vizs: agricultural residues, energy crops, forestry residues, and urban wood waste/mill residues. A brief description of each type of biomass is provided below:

Agricultural residues from the remaining stalks and biomass material left on the ground can be collected and used for energy generation purposes this include residues of wheat straw and corn stover. Energy crops are produced solely or primarily for use as feedstocks in energy generation processes. Energy crops includes hybrid poplar, and switchgrass, grown on idled, or in pasture, and in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Forestry residues are composed of logging residues, rough rotten salvageable dead wood, and excess small pole trees. Urban wood waste/mill residues are waste woods from manufacturing operations that would otherwise be landfilled. The urban wood waste/mill residue category includes primary mill residues and urban wood such as pallets, construction waste, and demolition debris, which are not otherwise used.

The most important agricultural commodity crops being planted in the United States are listed in Table 4. Corn, wheat, and soybeans represent about 70 percent of total cropland harvested.

 

 

Table 6 shows representative characteristics for different subcategories of urban wood waste and mill residues.

 

5.0 Risk and Uncertainties

Although a significant amount of effort has gone into estimating the available quantities of biomass supply, the following risk and uncertainties that need to be incorporated into design and decision work on biodiesel use are:

Risk to land use – Our planet only have 295 land, for example Brazil has some 200 million acres of farmland available, more than the 46 million acres of land,  required to grow the sugarcane needed to satisfy the projected 2022 Evolving competing uses of biomass materials, the large market consumption, pricing and growing need. In agricultural waste, the impact of biomass removal on soil quality pose treat to agricultural residues that need to be left on the soil to maintain soil quality could result in significant losses of biomass for electric power generation purposes. Impact of changes in forest fire prevention policies on biomass availability could cause vegetation in forests to minimize the potential for forest fires could significantly increase the quantity of forestry residues available. Potential attempt to recycle more of the municipal solid waste stream might translate into less available biomass for electricity generation. \ Impact on the food production industry as witness in recent food scarcity crisis

5.1 Regulatory impact

 

The EU has stated that by 2020 a target of 20% of community wide energy will be renewable. Further to this, all member states are to achieve a mandatory 10% minimum target for the share of biofuels in transport petrol and diesel consumption by 2020.. The legislation provides a phase-in for biofuel blends, including availability of high percentage biofuel blends at filling stations.  The United States Congress passed the Renewable Fuels Standards (RFS) in February 2008, which will require 35 billion gallons of renewable and alternative fuels in 2022. In parallel to this, work is continuing to reduce emissions further in vehicles. Political drivers in Asia vary according to region. In Southeast Asia, the centre of world production for palm oil, coconut oil, and other tropical oils, political support for farming is the key driver.

 

The issue affecting shipping is whether to refine and use biodiesel locally, or export the unrefined oil for product production elsewhere. In the short term the economics have favored the exports of unrefined oil – which is good news for us. Over the next ten years, with the cost of oil rising, and strict emission reductions in place, the need for increased biofuel production is likely to increase. as well as creating a net positive balance fuel. According to the IEA, world biofuels demand for transport could increase to about 3% of overall world oil demand in 2015 and double by 2030 over the 2008 figure. This does not sound so significant but as we show later it has a significant impact on the specialist fleet capacity demand. As we said before, predicting the trade pattern of biofuels adds a layer of complexity to the overall  nergy supply picture and our oil distribution system.

 

We also believe that this forecast will be the minimum seen as the political pressures will cause the level to rise beyond 3%. To put the scale in context, the current oil tanker fleet of vessels 10,000 dwt or larger comprises of some 4,600 vessels amounting to 386 million dwt. These include about 2,560 Handysize tankers. Additionally, there are some 4,400 more small tankers from 1,000 to 10,000 dwt accounting for 16 million dwt. Our projections show a significant role for seaborne transport, even using conservative bases with high proportions of locally supplied biofuels. This is a significant fleet segment that poses technical and regulatory challenges. As we have discussed, the requirements cannot be fully defined because many market factors remain uncertain, but ship owners who are building new vessels or operating existing vessels should consider this future trade through flexible design options that we will introduce later.

 

 

5.3  Potential Impacts to Shipping

 

The key political drivers for biofuels are environmental concerns, energy security and agricultural policy. The tonne mile demand for future tankers will be greatly affected by national, regional or global policy and political decision making in these areas. There is a greater flexibility in the sourcing of biofuels than there is in hydrocarbon energy sources and this may be attractive to particular governments. Once the regulatory framework is clear, economics will determine how the regulations will best be met and seaborne trade will be at the centre of the outcome. In many parts of the world, environmental concerns are the leading political driver for biofuels. Reflecting these concerns, the global Kyoto Protocol, was negotiated in 1997, and this further provides a driver for the use of biofuels.

 

 

 

 

5.4  Shipping Routes and Economics Impacts

 

The above trend analysis discussed indicate potential capacity requirement from shipping, so far  North America, Europe and South East  Asia are the key importing regions where this growth is concentrated. This includes the Latin American counties of Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, and Paraguay and Southeast Asia’s Indonesia and Malaysia will remain key suppliers for the palm oil, Philippines and Papua New Guinea have potentials for vegetable oil and agricultural while Thailand has potential for sugarcane. This trade potential will determine future trade route from Malacca Straits to Europe, ballast to Argentina, to load soybean oil to China, and then make a short ballast voyage to the Malacca Straits, where the pattern begins again, a typical complicated fronthaul / backhaul combinations that can initiate, economies of scale need top reduce freight costs and subsequent push for bigger ship production and short sea services like recent experience of today’s tankers.  According to plateau case study the following regional impact can be deduced for shipping.

 

 

 

Biofuel

Demand

North America

ethanol

33 million tons

Europe

ethanol and biodiesel.: 50:50

30 million tons

Asia

ethanol and biodiesel.: 50:50

18 million tons

 

North America demand – policy work support biofuel use in the us and 32 Handysize equivalent tankers will be needed to meet US demand in 2015. with technological breakthrough there will be need for 125 vessel 2030.

 

European demand – Due to environmental requirement and energy security believed to be politically acceptable in the EU but economics may drive a different outcome.80 Handysizes with some due to the growth in trade and longer voyage distance.  With technological breakthrough for 2nd and 3rd generation biofuel growth will need growing to 145 in 2030 Aframax vessels if the technical issues can be overcome.

 

Asia demand  - In plateau case  50 Handysize equivalents are required in 2015 and 2030 with forecast vessel sizes being Handysizes with some Panamax vessels 162 vessels total in the three regions.

 

By adding up all the regions, with biofuels as only 3% of world transport demand, we are looking at a fleet of about 400 Handysize vessels to accommodate the demand and supply drivers by 2030 and 162 by 2015. The total vessel forecast for 2030 could means 2,560 vessels of 81 million deadweight tons.

 

As regions identify these growth markets and recognize the economies of $/tonne scale that can be achieved, as shown here, with bigger tonnage, we are seeing natural investment occurring. New port developments in concerned trade rout will be required to accommodate large Panamax vessel and parcel size for palm oil exports. on the long haul routes.

 

5.5  Biomass  Ship Technologies Impacts

Generation

A variety of methods could turn an age-old natural resource into a new and efficient means of generating electricity. biomass in large amounts is available in many areas, and is being considered as a fuel source for future generation of electricity. Biomass is by its nature both bulky and widely distributed and electricity from conventional, centralized power plants requires an extensive distribution network. Traditionally power is generated through centralized, conventional power plant, where biomass is transported to the central plant, typically a steam or gas turbine power plant, and the electricity is then distributed through the grid to the end users. Costs include fuel and transportation, power plant construction, maintenance, and operation, and distribution of the electric power, including losses in transmission.

 

 

Electrical efficiency

capacity

 biomass

thermal efficiency -40 %

$2,000 per kilowat

 

coal

45 %

$1,500 per kilowatt,

 

However, micro-biomass power generators located at the site of end-use seem to offer a path for new solution for energy. Recent development in towards use of micro biomass will equally offer best practice adaptation for marine power. Biomass is used at or near the site of end-use, with heat from external combustion converted directly to electricity by a biomass fired free-piston genset . Costs include fuel and acquisition and maintenance of the genset and burner. Since the electricity is used on site, both transmission losses and distribution costs are minimal. Thus, in areas without existing infrastructure to transmit power, there are no additional costs. In this case it is also possible to cogenerate using the rejected heat for space or hot water heating, or absorption cooling. Previously, option two has not been feasible, since there have been no small (less than ~50 kW) devices for directly and efficiently converting biomass energy to electricity. Micro-biomass power generation is a more cost-effective means of providing power than central biomass power generation. In particular, areas where there is a need for both power and heat – domestic hot water and space heat and absorption chilling – are attractive for cogeneration configurations of this machine. Biomass can be generated using single or ganged free-piston Stirling engines gensets. These micro-biomass generators offer a number of advantages over centralized biomass fueled power plants. They can be placed at the end-user location taking advantage of local fuel prices and do not require a distribution grid. They can directly provide electrical output with integral linear alternators, or where power requirements are larger they can be ganged and drive a conventional rotary turbine. They are hermetically sealed and offer long lives through their non-contact operation.

Biomass for electricity generation is treated in four ways in NEMS: (1) new dedicated biomass or biomass gasification, (2) existing and new plants that co-fire biomass with coal, (3) existing plants that combust biomass directly in an open-loop process,18 and (4) biomass use in industrial cogeneration applications. Existing biomass plants are accounted for using information such as on-line years, efficiencies, heat rates, and retirement dates, obtained through EIA surveys of the electricity generation sector.

Emissions offsets and waste reduction could help enhance the appeal of biomass to utilities  An important consideration for the future use of biomass-fired power plants is the treatment of biomass flue gases. Biomass-combustion flue gases have high moisture content. When the flue gas is cooled to a temperature below the dew point, water vapor starts to condense. By using flue-gas condensation, sensible and latent heat can be recovered for district heating or other heat-consuming processes; this increases the heat generation from a cogeneration plant by more than 30 percent.  Flue-gas condensation not only recovers heat but also captures dust and hazardous pollutants from flue gases at the same time. Most dioxins, chlorine, mercury, and dust are removed, and sulfur oxides are separated out to some extent. Another feature of flue gas condensation is water recovery, which helps solve the problem of water consumption in evaporative gas turbines.

 

Biomass open door for another way rather than competing with fossil fuel plants a substantial opportunity exists to generate micro-biomass electric power, at power levels from fractions of a kilowatts through to tens or hundreds of kilowatts, at the point of en d use. At these power levels neither small internal combustion engines, which cannot use biomass directly, nor reciprocating steam engines, with low efficiency and limited life, can offer the end user economic electric power. Free-piston Stirling micro biomass engine engines are an economic alternative. Stirling offers the following advantages over significantly larger systems:

Stirling machines have reasonable overall efficiencies at moderate heater head temperatures (~600ƒC) cogeneration is simple large amounts of capital do not have to be raised to build a single evaluation plant with its associated technical and economic risks A large fraction of the value of the engine alternator can be reused at the end of its life Stirling systems can be ganged with multiple units operating in parallel.

 

United States: 1996, P1-R96-STAB-00-NTH (Washington, DC, November 1996). l.